Zia Sardar on intelligence
Technorati Tags: ziauddin sardar, forest gate, terrorism, new statesman
Zia Sardar in the current edition of the New Statesman on the folly of "intelligence-led" police operations:
Don't be fooled by the mantra that intelligence is an extremely difficult business, prone to absurdly wide margins of error. If that were so, Britain would have lost the Second World War. The remarkable success of British intelligence, including counter-intelligence, during that war proves that we can produce reasonable - say, 25 or even 50 per cent - rates of success.Intelligence may be difficult to gather but it is not impossible to get right. It must follow certain simple rules and principles. One has to ask some fundamental questions. Is the source reliable? Clearly a source that has been tortured is going to tell you whatever you want to hear. If you are going to recruit your source from a mosque, you have to make sure he doesn't harbour grudges against certain members of the group that you are targeting - which is probably what happened in the Forest Gate case. Can the source's evidence be corroborated? The official excuse that the police have to act on every single tip-off, however dodgy the source, without bothering to corroborate it, is not only ridiculous, but dangerously so. Intelligence, to be intelligence, has to be based on more than one source. And then, to increase the margin of success, one has to check out the intelligence, using proper surveillance.
His conclusions are that these "intelligence-led" jobs are often the fruit of political expediency, often involving people who entered into conspiracies at the instigation of the informers themselves. The whole article can be read once per day only, other than by subscribers.
Comments
I don't think that the current intelligence raids are wholly unjustified. One important difference between the IRA and the islamist terrorists is that the latter regard anyone except themselves as a "legitimate target". The IRA had to kill enough "legitimate targets" to attrit effectively over a period of years, but they also had to avoid turning their "war" into a war of extermination or lose support or acquiescence among their base population. The odd "accidental" atrocity was useful, but it had to look like an accident so it couldn't happen often. They lost because attrition wore them out first. The islamists believe that there is a war of extermination going on and they would like to make it overt. As a result, the possible consequences of not stopping an islamist plan at an early stage are much worse. With an IRA attack you could just send a patrol another way, set up a roadblock so the attack couldn't take place, substitute dud detonators or cartridges etc. A suicide bomber is a much less sophisticated and much more effective way of finding and attacking the target and the fact that the target is anywhere where the militant happens to be makes it more complicated. That the IRA was much more closely inegrated also made a difference- denouncing someone to the army or SB was a standard way of dealing with personal disagreements, and- equally- letting it be known that someone was an agent, even- or especially- if they weren't, was a good way to get the IRA to kill their own members. Islamists seem to be small bunches of nutters who only actually join al-Qaeda posthumously, so the only way to tell who they are before they're dead is to look at the characteristics, and being enthusiastic muslims is the most obvious characteristic. Equally, not seeming to be an enthusiastic muslim could be a way of concealing the fact, so they're both equally suspicious. Even when they get information networks up and running- which won't take long if they go about it effectively- the security services are going to have to act much earlier and on flimsier evidence than with the IRA.
Posted by: Thersites | June 26, 2006 9:26 AM
Thersites
If we use the word "Islamist" for all and sundry, it becomes a meaningless word, devoid of any particular usage.
In fact, there is a marked difference between most Islamist groups and the likes of "al-Qa'ida" (I'm not convinced it's one group a la the IRA, more a nihilistic ideology under which all acts of Muslim terroris or violence are shoved). Islamist groups have specific political and social aims and try and achieve through some kind of political process (of course, doesn't mean they're beyond criticism; just that they're not al-Qa'ida et al.)
Posted by: thabet | June 26, 2006 10:26 AM